Science and Belief

Norm is talking about superstition and ritual; he asks

What does it all mean - that so many people, included among them firm atheists, behave as if there are hidden causal processes that could link their saying an over-confident or otherwise ill-chosen word, or their touching (or not touching) wood, or wearing a particular garment, or crossing fingers, or whatever else, with the outcome of a football match or an election?

I would hazard a guess that it has something to do with thought processes that have served us well in evolution. Causal beliefs come naturally to us- John kicks the ball and it moves, Mary pushes the cup off the table and it crashes to the floor. Indeed, in "How the Mind Works" Steven Pinker explains that babies as young as six months understand the basic rules of causality. Babies are shown various animations of balls rolling around. If Ball A crashes into Ball B and B starts to move, they are bored. If however Ball A starts to move for no apparent reason, or Ball B remains still when Ball A crashes into it, or even if Ball A is shown to pass through Ball B- the babies look baffled- their eyes transfixed by the events they have seen.

It's easy to imagine how many ancient tribal beliefs could have developed - "I danced like this then it rained," "I prayed to my favourite God then a wild boar crossed my path." One thing happens then another. We know it's a logical fallacy to say that the first caused the second, but the thought is natural to us.

Scientific understading, scientific method, and experimental procedures on the other hand, do not come to us naturally at all. How many people throughout history, having thought up an explanation for something, have thought to themselves "Now first I will change my one independent variable and I will measure that change. I will then measure the resulting change in the dependent variable or variables. Finally, I must figure out how the controlled variables will be maintained at a constant value."

This is an enormously complex way of thinking and it's no wonder it took us so long to get there. To answer Norm's question then: 300,000 years of evolution trump 400 years of Science- even in the most intelligent, rational person.

Libertarian Subsidies

A magnificent observation from Thomas Franks:

“The reason that we have so many well-funded libertarians in America these days is not because libertarianism suddenly acquired an enormous grass-roots following, but because it appeals to those who are able to fund ideas. … Libertarianism is a politics born to be subsidized.”

Yet it's so obvious that I want to kick myself for not having thought of it before.

Worthless Lives No. 1: James Tien Pei-chun

A new series in which we look at people who have led utterly worthless lives. First up, leader of Hong Kong's pro-business Liberal Party, James Tien Pui-Chen.

In such a short interview, has any other person ever been so openly, proudly cretinous?

"I was appointed a district councilor for Kwai Ching in 1985, but I didn’t represent the people living there. I represented the businesses as that’s where my factory was.

Even when I was appointed to Legco in 1988, I kept the same stance: look at everything as a capitalist. I didn’t pay too much attention to say, social welfare meetings."

"I don’t care about the poverty gap – other political parties like to talk about it, but I don’t."

"We have to thank the proportional representation of Legco elections – I only needed 15 percent of the votes in New Territories East to win a seat. That’s what I call fair."

Tip o' the hat: hk-magazine

Quote of the Day

"The Russian army were an awesome sight on the march into the two breakaway Caucasus enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia."

George Galloway


Occasionally I wonder how it would be possible for Galloway to sink any lower into the depths of moral callousness than he already has. But then he comes up with lines like this and I can only conclude that his creativity in this department guarantees that he could sink much further if he wanted.

The Real Purpose of a University Education

[T]he life of the mind is lived one mind at a time: one solitary, skeptical, resistant mind at a time. The best place to cultivate it is not within an educational system whose real purpose is to reproduce the class system.

William Deresiewicz, "The Disadvantages of an Elite Education."

Choice and Belief

"Of course, circumstances — where you are born, your neighbourhood, your school and the choices your parents make — have a huge impact. But social problems are often the consequence of the choices people make."

Cameron's use of 'choice' here is interesting. Normally, 'choice' means selecting something from a number of options. Cameron's use of the word reveals his assumptions about life and the extent of his ignorance about growing up in poverty.

To make a choice about the direction you want to take in life, you must be aware of the options open to you. Middle class kids can go home to get advice on anything from homework to their future career- their parents can help plot all the steps and stages necessary to making a good career. In comparison, how can the average working class parent help with GCSE Physics homework or give advice on how to become a lawyer or accountant? Working class kids simply don't have access to the same range or depth of information as their middle class counterparts. Working class kids are not aware of all the options available to them.

Related to this is the implicit belief held by poorer kids that certain jobs are not 'for' them. Be it politics, law or work in the city, such careers are automatically-unconsciously- classified as out of reach. They don't know or see anybody in high positions and have no idea of the steps that need to be taken to reach these high positions. Looking back to my own schooldays, I remember being amazed when a boy in my class declared that he wanted to become an MP. I was amazed because this had simply not appeared in my conscience as an option. I just didn't know I had the choice.

Cameron's speech betrays his naiveté about life and society, about the struggle most people face to simply get on. His speech is lamentable not just because of this, nor just because of the condescension- the sheer Victorian righteousness of it all. But because in the circumstances his remarks are almost an incitement, a goading to violence; "Look at me," he is saying, "I am rich and successful. My life is better than yours . Why aren't you as rich and successful as I am? I am better than you. "

Bush on China, Trade and South Korean Women's Golf

There were a few surprises reading the interview with President Bush in the South China Morning Post. He comes across as much more thoughtful than he's portrayed.

Anyhow, some of the highlights:

On the US relationship with China:

GWB: One reason I call it a complex relationship is that here in America, trade with China is not necessarily universally accepted as good. It is universally accepted as good in this administration. I mean, free and fair trade is good for the world, and I believe it's good for this relationship. But it is a - some in America view the advent of Chinese manufacturing, particularly at the lower end of the economic scale, as direct competition with their own livelihood, thereby making the relationship complex.

Energy. What's very interesting is that if you view China as a market, you want them to become more robust and more prosperous. But in order to do that, China is going to have to have more energy, and as China demands more energy, it creates more global demand relative to a slower growing supply means higher prices for us all

On future of US Foreign Policy:

My worry for America over time is that we've become isolationist and protectionist. I've spoken about this quite frequently. Protectionism will be bad for our own economy and our world economy, in my judgment. Isolationism will create a lot of concern.

On North Korean refugees:

I'm a believer in human dignity and human rights. I discuss it with all leaders. And I am - for example, when it comes to China, we have constantly asked China not to send people back into North Korea. I want to thank the South Korean people for welcoming their brothers and sisters who have been able to escape.

On South Korean Women's Golf:

Bush: You know the thing that amazes me? The South Korean women golfers (laughter). Look at a women's - have you ever looked at the scoreboard?

Q: Yes, sure.

Mr Bush: It's unbelievable.

Q: I don't know -

Mr Bush: Yes, you're supposed to know. If you look at the scoreboard, it's phenomenal. You talk about an excellent athletic program.

Q: It's actually a Korean-born, American-trained.

Mr Bush: You think so? I'm not sure. I know the woman who won the LPGA, is that what it was - won the Open is Korean-born, American-trained. But I'm not so sure -

Q: Mostly they come - like they go to - school in Florida or Arizona, or something like that. So they -

Mr Bush: All of them?

Q: Like, I would say 80 per cent. They come to US. They work out -

Mr Bush: Okay. But they have got a pretty - they must have a young girls' programme that's pretty active too, to get people interested in the first place.

Q: Yes, I think Korean women are much more disciplined than Korean men (laughter).

Ms Perino: That's not just in Korea (laughter).